With the likely retirement of Republican Rep. Tom Davis from the House in order to pursue a Senate bid against Democratic superstar Mark Warner next year, Republicans will be left to defend a House seat in northern Virginia that is trending hard in the Democrats’ favor. With a PVI of R+0.6, Davis’ district went to Bush twice: by 7% in 2000, but only by a slim 1% margin in 2004. Additionally, Mark Warner carried this district by a 55.5%-43.8% margin in his 2001 gubernatorial bid. Democrat Tim Kaine carried it by a 55.67%-42.42% margin in 2005, and Jim Webb edged Republican Sen. George Allen in the district by 54.69%-44.20%.
It’s no surprise then, that local and national Democrats are eyeing this district hungrily. Navy vet Doug Denneny was the first to declare for the seat, and others are expected to follow. According to Lowell over at Raising Kaine, a familiar Virginia name is soon to follow:
Today, former 11th District Congresswoman Leslie Byrne filed an exploratory committee: “Byrne for Congress Exploratory Committee.” Looks like the race to replace Tom Davis is heating up!
Byrne, as you may recall, represented the 11th District for one term after the 1992 elections, before being routed in the Republican sweep of 1994. She lost the primary for the Democratic Senate nomination in 1996 (to Mark Warner, no less), but narrowly won election as a state Senator for a single term from 1999-2003. In 2005, she ran as the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor. Not favored to win statewide, the Democratic tide in the state lifted her to within 1% of Republican Bill Bolling’s vote total.
I don’t have a moose in this race, but I’m very curious to see how this primary unfolds, and if this development will affect the decision-making process of Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly.
Race Tracker: VA-11
I have to disagree with you here. Where did you pick up that she wasn’t favored to win? She was running on a ticket with Kaine and Deeds with Warner’s coattails. It was amazing that Bolling and McDonnell won, not that Deeds and Byrne almost won. I will grant you that, as a NoVa liberal, she had the odds stacked against her, but implying that she was throwaway candidate is just wrong.
I would look for Connolly to get into the race no matter what. Fairfax is Connolly country, and he has the money to do it; and if he loses, he goes back to being Supervisor. And if Byrne loses in ’08, he can run again in 2010 with a clear field.
btw, Byrne won 55% in the 11th district in her 2005 run for Lt. Gov.
My impression living in the DC area is that Connolly has been very happy to take developers money and give them what they want. NoVA’s quality of life has suffered as a result of sloppy development. Maybe someone from RaisingKaine can fill us in. I remember reading over there during the last VA primary that a pro-development Republican turned Democrats (Linda Smyth) was heavily backed by Connolly over a candidate that RaisingKaine supported in a Board of Supervisors.
And she’ll be a strong candidate, though I’m not sure if she can beat Connolly in a primary. But as I pointed out before, she won’t be running against Bill Bolling, who hardly campaigned at all in the 11th.
There are plenty of Northern Virginia Republicans left. Northern Virginia is much more like California–huge pockets of GOPers surrounded by bigger pockets of Dems, but the right GOPer can win statewide–than New England. And it works that way in statewide races as well. Democrats have a lock on NoVa, like they have a lock on CA, and must pick up other votes in the state to win. A Republican that can win NoVa, like a GOPer that can win California, almost guarantees victory.
For all of the talk about NoVA turning blue, it is still primarily a 60-40 region or closer. This isn’t Massachusetts we’re talking about here.
As far as potential GOP nominees, names mentioned include State Sen. Jay O’Brien, Prince William Cty. BoS Chairman Corey Stewart, Del. Tim Hugo, and ’05 LG candidate Sean Connaughton.
Our quality of life has improved in Fairfax thanks to Connolly. Public Safety, libraries and schools have been funded and managed well to address the increasing and diverse needs or our community. The traffic is a result of the job growth and resulting population increase. The roads are the states failure. Would you stop a booming economy because the state won't take care of its obligations of roads, public saftey and schools? UVA, for example, a STATE school, gets less that 10% of its funding by the state. Connolly gets good things done and protects this county from our predatory state legislature. Now drive slowly or you'll get a huge ticket to pay for the state's past failure to address its responsibilities.